Likelihood Ratio as Weight of Forensic Evidence: A Closer Look

Likelihood Ratio as Weight of Forensic Evidence: A Closer Look

The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this approach have argued that Bayesian reasoning proves it to be normative. We find this likelihood ratio paradigm to be unsupported by arguments of Bayesian decis...

Probabilistic Evaluation of SMS Messages as Forensic Evidence: Likelihood Ratio Based Approach with Lexical Features

This study is one of the first likelihood ratio-based forensic text comparison studies in forensic authorship analysis. The likelihood-ratio-based evaluation of scientific evidence has started being adopted in many disciplines of forensic evidence comparison sciences, such as DNA, handwriting, fingerprints, footwear, voice recording, etc., and it is largely accepted that this is the way to ensu...

A closer look at creativity as search

Several papers by Wiggins (building on ideas by Boden) have outlined a view of creative concept generation as a very general search process, but that formalisation has not been developed much in the past few years. Also, there are some aspects where clarification or spelling out of details would be useful. We present a re-formulation of the central ideas in Wiggins’s framework, with slightly mo...

A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation.

This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes' inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of the evidence for a trace specimen, e.g. a fingermark, and a reference specimen, e.g. a fingerpri...

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